In the survey I just sent out about this years thinktank, I tried made a comment that has gotten me a quite a few responses.
Facebook is the new Google, Twitter is the new facebook, and Google is trying to become twitter.
For my core readers, I am sure the self evidence of this is obvious without explanation.
Facebook’s annual revenue as far as I know is not public, but it is way up there. I have buddies who are trying to spend tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars a day, who still have trouble getting facebooks attention. I know I spend a small fortune on facebook each week, and the impressions just keep flying across the screen.
Here is my math, not based on any inside facebook data, but simply using a little known info and logic.
Lets assume facebook has 400 million users.
Let’s assume each user sees 4 screens per day on average. (Think it actually is much higher, but some people never go on at all)
That is 1.6 billion impressions.
If we assume that it costs about .0002 dollars per impression, my estimation, which is 2/100 of a penny per impression.
Then we have about $320,000 per day in income.
If you multiply that by 365 days per year, you end up with over 100 million in revenue per year.
(Double check my math above and I will correct it if I am off)
I actually think my estimates above are way on the conservative side, and bet it is much closer to a billion.
I’ve known half a dozen billionaires over my lifetime, so that is not unbelievable, but the fact that that is generating that
in cash every year, is enough to get even googles ears pricking up, even if they are making 20X more.
Facebook is now going off of the blue and white page, and into a website near you. If you look at the top of Shoemoney’s posts,
you will see the new like button. This can only end up to some type of cumulative suggestion to you of what sites you will be interested in, in each industry or search category, eventually making facebook a true human search engine. I expect we will see that in two or three years, or maybe next month?
Since facebook confiscated the moving stream of twitter, twitter is adding more and more social interactivity between users. You can now easily retweet with a button, and if you hold your cursor over someones user name on twitter, you get a little box of social information about that person. I have a feeling that little box is going to grow and grow, and eventually contain the obvious thing we all want to know. Do they follow me?
Google on the other hand, watching these young upstarts moving in on their turf, is picking up some of their tips. The most obvious of which is googles desire to be fresh. Shoemoney recently poked fun of my not so fresh looking chiropractic page, and how it still ranks number one. Google is at an interesting crossroads where it is trying to give us the most relevant info, yet at the same time, their site is coming to life with change. I consider myself a pretty early adopter of new technology, and I find myself messing with the options on the left side of the screen in google, modifying how they show my results, twitter like, or google like.
In a few years I expect the three of them, along with a whole new slew of competitors, many of which will be running on the same engines, but just with different branding, will all do basically the same thing. They will keep us in touch with each other and the world, and help us find what we want.
I love the fact that is so dam complicated with so many different options and strategies, that it is now impossible to figure out THE right way do make money with it. It reminds me of surfing. One of the reasons I love it so much is that not only are you busting the moves you want on the playing field, but the playing field is constantly changing under your feet.
Welcome to real internet surfing. Not only are you making and implementing strategies, but at the same time, the very fabric that you are working with, is changing under your very hands. There is going to be great reward for those of us with flexible minds.